Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Flopped sets or better

Just in case you don't know this number, you should flop a set or better (full house, quads) 1 every 8.5 times you hold a pocket pair.


-saw flop with pocket pair: 1080
-flopped a set or better: 125 (1 in 8.6)
-expected: 127 (-2)
-flopped something with 22,33,44,55: 23/219 (1 in 9.5)

-saw flop with pocket pair: 3899
-flopped a set or better: 463 (1 in 8.4)
-expected: 459 (+4)
-flopped something with 22,33,44,55: 126/1011 (1 in 8.0)

-saw flop with pocket pair: 363
-flopped a set or better: 38 (1 in 9.6)
-expected: 43 (-5)
-flopped something with 22,33,44,55: 13/95 (1 in 7.3)

-saw flop with pocket pair: 347
-flopped a set or better: 29 (1 in 12.0)
-expected: 41 (-12)
-flopped something with 22,33,44,55: 1/59 (1 in 59.0)

-saw flop with pocket pair: 5689
-flopped a set or better: 655 (1 in 8.7)
-expected: 669 (-14)
-flopped something with 22,33,44,55: 163/1384 (1 in 8.5)

Total sample size: 121k hands

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Microgaming 9k hands

My last bonus chase. I've played ~9k hands on FL 0.5/1 6max tables on Microgaming network. The bonus requirement was 10 raked hands / $1.

Bonus cleared: $350
Rake paid: ~$250
MGR: $340

This is ~100% rakeback equivalent (missing few hundred hands). I've also earned another $40 in their last months race (played only half a month), another $49 in weekly race ( won an MP3 player but they gave me cash) and I'm due another $20 in this months race. That's another $109 for a total of $459 in bonus and ~135% dealt rakeback equivalent.

Some stats:
-hands played: 8683
-pocket pairs dealt: 483
-flopped sets or better: 38
-expected: 57

-saw flop with pocket pairs: 347
-flopped sets or better: 29
-expected: 41 (12 below expectation)
-flopped something with 22,33,44,55: 1/59

-pairs dealt-expected: 511 (28 below expectation)
-flopped sets or better-expected: 60 (22 below expectation)

According to these stats only, I was running awful yet I lost only 57 BB's or -0.66 BB/100. Not a great result but when compared to other regulars, it's not bad at all considering how much money I threw away while playing bad due to frustration.

There are 15 (without me) players with more than 500 hands in my PT database. Most of them have good preflop stats, 26/19, 27/21 or something like that but only 2 are winning. One of them is my friend Perisa who is losing overall while chasing his bonus but he won 15 BBs in 1025 hands we played on same tables. Another one is a 22/18 regular who has 64% won@SD and 52% won when seen flop so I guess he is on a heater or something. Only 1 more player is losing less than 1 BB/100.

The overall playing standard on these tables is awful. Almost all regulars are spewtards or weak TAG's and have huge leaks both preflop and postflop. I guess I will stay on this network as long as I can find easy bonuses like this one.

Thursday, May 7, 2009


Something was strange so I checked my Microgaming stats again. It appears not only I can't flop a set, I also had 39 pocket pairs less than expected. Over 6461 hands, I had 341 pocket pairs and should have had 380. Of course, my flopped sets ratio is even worse than yesterday, 1 in 17.1. Why am I so obsessed with flopped sets? I have a report in PT3 so it's easy to check but I'm sure there are a couple more stats that could clearly indicate how awful I'm running at the moment. Hit a flush draw for example, I feel I'm way below my expectation when it comes to hitting a draw. While writing this, I just hit a set in a multiway pot and didn't lose. Yesssssssssss!!!

I'll probably go fishing this saturday so I hope it will help me relax a bit because I'm very nervous lately and it's affecting my play.

Wow, I just noticed, there are 5 players on my table with a 50% VPIP or more!!! If only I could get a hand every few rounds...

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

More whining

Today's session:
350 hands
KK - 1/2 (won without a flop)
QQ - 0/1 (idiot limped with KK and just called down)
JJ - 0/2
99 - 0/1
AKs - 1/2 (won with A-high; lost with TPTK)
AKo - 2/6 (won with CB on flop; split with TPTK; lost once with flopped nuts straight)
ATo, A9o, A8o - 1/11 (stole the blinds once; hit something at flop exactly 0 times)
Had a flush: 0 times
Sets: 1/12

Either this flopped sets report in PT3 is not working or I'm officialy running way below I'm supposed to. I'm sure you know that you should flop a set every 8.5 times you hold a pocket pair. Well, I'm flopping a set every 11.5 times over 33.3k hands this year. That's 35% worse than it should be.

I hate poker!

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

A f..king joke

5931 hands on Microgaming.